Just ten days to the presidential election of March 28, a survey carried out by a National Think Tank Group, has predicted victory for the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), General Muhammadu Buhari. The two-page analysis of the survey, tagged: “Straw Prediction of 2015 Presidential Election”, made available to Daily Sun by Dr. Peter Orji, gave Buhari/APC an estimated votes of 15.4 million and President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), 11 million.
The researchers stated that they arrived at the figures after “a careful study of the demographics of Nigeria voting patterns,based on an unbiased analysis of how voters shall cast their votes.”
According to the group, Buhari would lead in the North-East, North- West, North-Central and South-West, while Jonathan would win in the South-South and South-East.
The survey said Buhari would eventually have an upper hand going by heavy votes he would record in his catchment areas against Jonathan, who the survey said, would garner fewer votes in his areas of strength.
However, unlike 2011, General Buhari, the survey said, “will secure substantial votes in the North-Central and greatly improve his showing in the South-East.”
The survey summed up the distribution of the votes across the zones thus: “North-Central, PDP, 1.73million, APC, 1.86million. North-East, PDP, 1.3million, APC, 2.55million. North- West, PDP 2.15million, APC, 5.65million. South-East, PDP 1.65million, APC, 650,000. South-South, PDP, 2,.2million APC, 1.7million. South- West, PDP, 2million, APC, 2.9million. FCT, PDP, 150,000, APC, 200,000.
In summary, the survey revealed that, “the APC candidate will carry all the states in North-West and North- East and will win marginally in North- Central,” saying, “the margin of victory for Gen. Buhari is a staggering 4.4million votes and it is impossible for President Jonathan to close such a margin.”
What would boost Buhari’s victory in the North-East and North-West, the poll explained, would largely be due to expected increase in the voters’ turnout, “whilst the turnout in the South-East and South-South is likely to decrease.
The simple explanation, according to the group, “is that the North-East, North-West and South-West zones feel that their sons, Buhari and Osinbanjo, are on the APC ticket and considering the number of votes accruing to the three zones, Jonathan will find it absolutely impossible to fill the gap.”
While concluding, the group said that, “because of the postponement that occurred five weeks ago, a repeat this time will not go down well with Nigerians who very likely will accuse the administration of having its hand in disrupting the process, and because of the tight timelines to avoid a possible constitutional crisis a shift in the elections this time may become impossible to contemplate.